Jaren Jackson Jr. is the frontrunner to win Defensive Player of the Year despite a disadvantage in games played compared to his competition.
The Grizzlies’ big man has played in 39 of 56 games, the fewest among the favorites to win the award. Still, his defensive resume has him well ahead of the field with -200 odds. The next tier is made up of Bucks center Brook Lopez, Nets center Nicolas Claxton and Heat center Bam Adebayo, all of whom are tied for second with +700 odds. MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, who won it in 2020, rounds out the top five contenders, though he’s a distant fifth at +2500.
With the All-Star break upon us, it appears a big man—whether it is Jackson or someone else—will hoist the trophy at the end of the season once again after Marcus Smart last year became the first guard to win DPOY in decades.
Jackson’s candidacy stems from his remarkable individual statistics and the advanced numbers that exhibit how his presence makes Memphis a top-five defensive team. He led the league in blocks a season ago with 2.3 per game and he’s upped that figure to 3.3 this season, which will lead the league when or if he’s qualified based on percentage of games played. Jackson also averages one steal per game, has improved his rebounding average to a career-best 6.6 boards per game and has crucially reduced the number of fouls he commits.
He leads all players in defensive rating, ranks third in defensive box plus/minus and his 10.8 block percentage is tops in the NBA by a considerable margin. With Jackson on the court, the Grizzlies’ defensive rating is 109.8, a top-three mark. Without him, it jumps to 113.5, about league average. And before Jackson made his season debut in mid-November, Memphis ranked dead last in defensive rating across seven games played in October without him.
Despite a conspiracy theory regarding perceived discrepancies in Jackson’s home/away statistical splits (which has since been debunked), his case for the recently renamed Hakeem Olajuwon award is very real. Jackson was a value bet in the preseason with +2800 odds, tied for 15th-best at the time.
Other contenders
Lopez anchor’s Milwaukee’s stout defense, which is one of two units that rank ahead of the Grizzlies by defensive rating. He’s played all but one game so far this season for the second-place Bucks and his 2.4 blocks per game, second in the NBA, are tied for a career-high. Lopez also averages 6.5 rebounds, his most since the 2015-16 season. He also ranks sixth in defensive win shares and eighth in defensive rating.
Claxton was one of his team’s only defensive stoppers until Brooklyn made multiple moves at the trade deadline, swapping out Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving for a slew of wing defenders, including 2022 DPOY runnerup Mikal Bridges. He transitioned to a full-time starter in his fourth season in the league and his defensive averages have improved accordingly. Claxton’s 140 blocks (2.6 per game) are the most in the NBA and he leads the Nets with nine boards per game.
As a team, Brooklyn ranks 14th in defensive rating, though Claxton is ninth individually and 10th in defensive win shares. He also trails only Jackson and rookie Walker Kessler Jr. in block percentage.
Adebayo’s counting stats are not as gaudy as those of Jackon, Claxton or Lopez, but his impact on defense goes further than blocks and steals. He’s the heart and soul of Miami’s fifth-ranked defense and is third among all players in defensive win shares behind Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, who rank first and second, respectively.
Last year, Adebayo’s case was marred by the fact that he played just 56 games and he finished fourth in voting. He’s already played in 53 this year, so availability shouldn’t count against him this season when ballots are submitted.
Antetokounmpo’s advanced defensive stats are essentially all in the top 10: Defensive rating, defensive win shares, you name it. Somewhat surprisingly, though, his counting stats are the worst they’ve been since his rookie year. He shares credit with Lopez for what the Bucks do on defense, but his career-best offensive season is rightfully getting more attention than his efforts on the other side of the ball.
The two pillars of Cleveland’s league-best defense, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, are next in line, though Mobley, the second-year pro, has slightly better odds than his veteran counterpart in the frontcourt. They’ve both helped the Cavaliers improve from the No. 5 defense to No. 1 in the span of a year and they up their play with impressive individual stats to boot.
2022-23 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds
Jaren Jackson Jr. -200
Brook Lopez +700
Nicolas Claxton +700
Bam Adebayo +700
Giannis Antetokounmpo +2500
Evan Mobley +3300
Jarrett Allen +4000
Joel Embiid +4000
OG Anunoby +4000