[ad_pod ]

Watford currently sit third in the Premier League table and, at first glance, it may be shocking to some to see them doing so well.

They’ve scored nine goals across their first four games, which is the third most in the division, and only conceded three goals – the second least so far.

However, there are clear signs of impending regression from the club. First off, they are currently ranked 11th in the league in terms of expected goals but are scoring at a rate much higher than that.

Roberto Pereyra himself has scored three goals this season, outperforming his expected goals number of .58. Historically, the team does not regularly outperform their expected goals projection. The last time this occurred they outscored their projection by four to score 40 goals in the 2016/17 season.

Additionally, during their last three seasons in the Premier League, Watford have scored a maximum of 44 goals in a single season and this may prove to be a problem for a team that has aspirations to finish in the top seven this term.

Over the last three years no team in the Premier League has finished between 5th and 7th without scoring at least 49 goals. In order for them to continue to perform this way, they are going to need to start getting some sort of contribution from Gerard Deulofeu, who has yet to play a single minute this season following his £14million move from Barcelona during the last transfer window. Deulofeu is not the only attacking player who needs to contribute for Watford, though.

Both Troy Deeney and Andre Gray must be very effective throughout the campaign for Watford to maintain their current form, or to finish in a European place. In their games thus far Deeney has scored twice and Gray once, but only Deeney ranks in the top 30 for expected goals for individual players.

In order for Watford to reach the aforementioned number of 49 goals, Deeney will need to improve or at least match his career high total of 13 goals in a single season.

Similarly, Andre Gray will certainly have to exceed his career high goals total of nine, which he accomplished for Burnley in the 2016/17 season – that led Watford to spend a new club transfer record of £18.5m for the striker. Thus far, Gray has scored just six goals in 35 appearances for Watford and is scoring a goal once every 292 minutes.

The overarching problem for Watford seems to be the amount of shots they have on goal. In the last three years Watford haven’t finished higher than 12th in the Premier League in terms of shots taken.

While shots taken is not a direct indicator of the amount of goals a team scores, a team like Watford cannot rely on their defence to lead them to a record finish in the league.

Watford boss Javi Gracia will learn a lot about his squad and what it’s capable of in the coming games, which includes tough fixtures against the likes of Man United and Arsenal. If they can come through those unscathed, then perhaps Watford can continue to overachieve for a little while longer.

[brid autoplay=”true” video=”291236″ player=”12034″ title=”Jose Mourinho Has Turned Into Arsene Wenger”]